Oil prices rise as US strengthens sanctions on Iran; but oversupply concerns remain

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Oil prices rise as US strengthens sanctions on Iran; but oversupply concerns remain

Trump's administration on Thursday stepped up its "extreme pressure" on Iran, imposing sanctions on Iranian Oil Minister Muhanson Pakhnejad and targeting entities and ships related to Iran's "shadow fleet" used to circumvent existing sanctions.

The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced the measures, highlighting Iran's use of a complex network of tankers and shipping lines spread across multiple jurisdictions to transport its oil to international markets.

OFAC added that they used forgery of documents, manipulation of ship tracking systems, and frequent changes of ship names and flags to evade detection.

These actions are intended to undermine Iran's ability to finance destabilizing activities through oil exports and strengthen U.S. commitments to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and supporting militant groups.

Oil prices were also boosted by data showing lower-than-expected US inflation data for February.

Traders are currently assessing the potential for oversupply in the oil market based on several key developments. The United States has launched ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine aimed at stabilizing the region and ensuring that energy supplies are not disrupted. A successful ceasefire would lead to increased oil exports from the region, thereby contributing to global supply. At the same time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global oil supply may exceed demand in 2025 due to the downward revision of the demand growth forecast. "Macroeconomic conditions underpinning our oil demand forecast worsened over the past month as trade tensions escalated between the United States and several other countries," the IEA wrote in its monthly report." In addition, OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, plan to gradually reverse their voluntary production cuts from April 2025. OPEC said on Wednesday that its oil production increased by 363000 bpd to 41.01 million bpd in February.

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